Brent crude oil prices remained relatively steady in December at an average of USD73.9/bbl m-o-m (a slight decline of USD0.5/bbl compared to November average):
- Global oil demand. Global liquids demand continued to rise in December, increasing by 1.5 MMb/d m-o-m to 104.7 MMb/d. This rise in consumption was partly driven by seasonal colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as lower fuel prices and abundant petrochemical feedstocks
- OPEC 9 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 9’s production remained steady m-o-m at 26.9 MMb/d. The gradual unwinding of OPEC+’s 2.2 MMb/d of production cuts is planned to start from April 2025
- Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production increased slightly by 0.1 MMb/d m-o-m to 61.9 MMb/d. Production gains in Canada and the US GoM offset declines elsewhere including Brazil and China
- US shale oil production. US shale production has also remained steady m-o-m (and throughout most of 2024) at 8.9 MMb/d. The number of active rigs stood at 565 in December, up 5 units compared to November
- Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Combined production levels in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya increased by ~0.1 MMb/d m-om, averaging at 5.6 MMb/d. Production levels have been steadily increasing since September 2024, mainly driven by Libya
- Commercial inventories.1 Global commercial inventories declined by ~6 million barrels in December, driven by a decline in OECD inventories. Overall, inventories have remained relatively steady at ~4.5 billion barrels over the last four months
- Market sentiment. Considering 2024 as a whole, the global liquids market was slightly under-supplied with average global liquids production for the year at 102.6 MMb/d (+0.5 MMb/d y-o-y) compared to global average consumption of 102.8 MMb/d (+0.9 MMb/d y-o-y). Looking ahead, production in 2025 is projected to increase given the planned unwinding of OPEC+ cuts and expected growth in non-OPEC production volumes, although geopolitical and economic uncertainties remain
1 Non-OECD share of inventories is estimated, assuming that non-OECD inventories have 50% days of demand cover of OECD inventories
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Oil supply & demand dashboard: January 2025
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